The set-up: Brooklyn comes in off a 127-119 home loss to the Clippers on Saturday and I think the undermanned Nets will struggle against a Heat team out to atone for a 113-97 loss to LBJ and the Lakers. Brooklyn is averaging 109.9 PPG, but it's allowing 111.3. Miami is averaging 109.3 PPG and it's allowing 110.6.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Nets are already just 4-5 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more, while the Heat are 18-10 ATS in their last 28 following a loss by ten points or more. Lay the points and expect a rout.