The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there's no doubt this is one of them. Yanks' ace Luis Severino is a favorite for a reason in this match-up, but I think he's a little over-valued. In the end I'm going to lay the 1.5 runs and the reasonable price on Mike Fiers and the home side.

The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA. After an unsustainable start, Severino cooled off some over August. He's been solid overall, although he does sport a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Fiers is so far 10-6 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. In four previous starts for the A's Fiers had been nearly un-hittable, but he'd finally come back down to Earth in this one.

The pick: Starts like that though have been few and far between for Fiers this season, who still owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP over 146.2 innings of work. Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League home games in which it's an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. Play on the A's on the "run line."