The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there's no question that this is one of them. That said, I think Miles Mikolas will find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Williams is so far 10-9 with a 3.44 ERA. For the most part Williams has completely exceeded expectations for Pittsburgh this year, but if the big right-hander has had one clear area of weakness, it's definitely been his play on the road where he owns a pedestrian 4.01 ERA.

Mikolas is so far 13-3 with a 2.94 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off 12 hits over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to St. Louis on Friday. It was arguably the worst start of his career, so I'm not going to over-react to one poor effort. Note that despite the shoddy performance he still owns a sharp 2.94 ERA and elite 1.09 WHIP

The pick: Also note that Mikolas is a "lights out" 6-3 with a 2.13 ERA at home this season. I'm banking on Mikolas bouncing back in a big way in front of the home town crowd tonight. Lay the price.