The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 3, and while that one would come up short, I firmly believe that Las Vegas will bounce back here after back-to-back defeats. Take it for what you will, but Las Vegas is 12-3 (+8.7 units) this season after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing.

The teams: I said before this series started that the victor would be whichever team's goaltender played better. So far Braden Holtby has been better than his counterpart Marc-Andre Fleury.

Holtby is 14-7 with a 2.13 GAA in the postseason. Washington is 33-18 at home this year, averaging 3.31 goals, while allowing 2.57. Alexander Ovechkin scored his 14th of the playoffs in the Game 3 victory, While Evgeny Kuzetsov notched his 12th.

Fleury is 13-5 with a 1.95 GAA in the postseason. The Golden Knights are "road warriors," coming into Game 4 having gone 28-22 on the road overall (including 6-3 in the playoffs) averaging 2.82 and conceding 2.82 in those games. Tomas Nosek would deliver with the lone goal for the Knights in Game 3 and he now has four in his last five games.

The pick: Las Vegas has already re-written the NHL record books, but clearly the Golden Knights can't be happy after back-to-back lacklustre efforts. The Capitals haven't been to a Stanley Cup Final in 20 years and after holding on for the Game 2 victory, they'd ride the wave of emotion at home to another Game 3 win. But in my opinion, this one sets up as a classic letdown spot now for Washington. Bank on Fleury returning to form and for the Knights to gut out the victory.