The set-up: The Tigers held off the Yankees 4-3 on Tuesday, giving them three wins in their last four, following a four-game skid. Detroit's Shane Greene, who made his major league debut with New York in 2014, received his first save opportunity against his former team at Yankee Stadium and earned it by getting the final five outs. The Yanks lost for only the third time in 12 games but did drop one-half game behind first-place Boston in the AL East, as Boston beat Cleveland Monday and Tuesday. Yankee "super rookie" Aaron Judge was 0-for-4 and is now 10-for-63 since the All-Star break, dropping his batting average below .300 (.299) for the first time since late April.

The pitching matchup: Two disappointing starters square off in today's rubber match of the three-game series, Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann (6-8 & 5.69 ERA) and New York's Masahiro Tanaka (8-9 & 5.09 ERA). Zimmermann is coming off a solid performance against the Houston Astros in his last outing, allowing three runs on six hits over seven innings (took a no-decision in a 6-5 Houston win). However, it did mark the sixth quality start in the last 10 outings for Zimmermann, who has had a wildly inconsistent season. He's 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three career starts vs. the Yankees. Like Zimmermann, Tanaka has been up and down all season but he was superb in his last outing against Tampa Bay, registering a career-high 14 strikeouts while yielding only a solo HR among two hits over eight innings in last Friday's 6-1 win. However, he was 0-2 in his previous three starts (Yanks were 0-3), allowing 12 ERs on 21 hits over 18 innings (6.00 ERA). Tanaka is 0-2 with a 5.61 ERA in three career starts vs. the Tigers.

The pick: When I say Tanaka's season has been up and down, I'm not exaggerating. He has been charged with five ERs seven times, while in seven other starts he has allowed two ERs or less. Tanaka is the only Yankees starting pitcher with a losing record and his 5.09 ERA is the highest on the team. The Yankees are eagerly anticipating the debuts of new starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jaime Garcia. Gray will start Thursday in Cleveland and Garcia will oppose the Indians on Friday. Tanaka needs to get back in a groove. A good sign is that he has held opposing batters to a .226 batting average at Yankee Stadium. Zimmermann makes his 21st start of the season today and while his bloated 5.69 ERA and 1.74 WHIP tell one part of the story, he has allowed three ERs or less in almost half (nine) of his previous 20 starts. He's off a solid effort the last time out (see above) and does own a 1.80 ERA in three career outings vs. the Yanks. Make the Under an 8* play.