Rogers' Afternoon ASSAULT >> +$29,884 Since May 1st!
(MLB) Atlanta vs. Arizona,
Money Line: -183.00 Arizona (Home)
Result: Win
The set-up: Arizona won 10-2 on Monday but those same bats were quiet on Tuesday, as the Braves won 8-3. In fact, Arizona's starting pitcher, Taijuan Walker, had two of the team's eight hits (including a long solo HR) in the loss. With the defeat, Arizona suffered its 12th setback in its last 17 contests, falling 12 1/2 games back of the LA Dodgers in the NL West. The D'backs are in a virtual tie with the Rockies for the two wild card spots in the NL but both teams are now also looking over their shoulders at the Cubs, who are with 4 1/2 games (if not the Cubs, it would be the Brewers). The 48-51 Braves are not threatening the Nats in the NL East nor the top wild card teams but are 4-1 against the Diamondbacks this season and 15-8 against the NL West. The rubber game of this three-game set goes Wednesday afternoon.

The pitching matchup: Aaron Blair (2016: 2-7, 7.59 ERA) will get the first crack at seizing the rotation spot of Jaime Garcia, who was traded to Minnesota whne he faces off against Arizona's Patrick Corbin (7-9, 4.43 ERA). Blair hardlty impressed last season (see above) and he's gone 6-5 with a 4.97 ERA in 18 starts for the Braves' top minor-league affiliate so far in 2017 (he's allowed 89 hits and 40 walks in 87 innings). Blair faced Arizona in his third career start last season and suffered the loss after giving up three runs (two earned) in five innings.Corbin's last start might have been his best this season. He was moved up in the rotation because Taijuan Walker has pitched effectively at Chase Field in 2017, going 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 11 starts (team is 7-4). That's quite a difference from his 2-6 (6.19 ERA) road mark in nine starts (team is 2-7). Over his past three Chase Field starts, he has a 2.41 ERA.

The pick: No reason to expect Blair to be able to handle an Arizona team which is 35-18 at home, outscoring opponents 5.70-to-4.08 RPG. Then there is Corbin's success against the Braves to consider. He is 3-0 with an 0.59 ERA against Atlanta, yielding only two ERs in 30 2/3 innings over six games (four starts). Those two runs came July 15 during a five-inning start in Atlanta, when he didn't figure in the decision as the Braves won 8-5. Make Arizona an 8* play.