The set-up: The Pirates won 4-2 on Monday in the opener of this four-game home series with the Brewers. It marked Pittsburgh's eighth win in its last 10 games and moved the Pirates to within six games of the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. More good news comes Pittsburgh's way in that Starling Marte returns to the lineup Tuesday night after serving an 80-game suspension for testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance Nandrolone. Marte was suspended on April 18 but will be in left field when the Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers in the second of this four-game series. The loss represented the second in a row for Milwaukee, which had has now dropped back-to-back games for the first time since June 27-28. The Brewers are still atop the division but the Cubs have won four straight and are just 3 1/2 back (Cards are 5 1/2 back and the Pirates six back).

The pitching matchup: Junior Guerra (1-3 & 4.78 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Ivan Nova (9-6 & 3.21) for Pittsburgh. Guerra missed almost two months (from early April to late-May) with a right calf strain and has made only 10 starts (he has just one win and the Brewers are 4-6 in those starts). He had a third straight abbreviated start last time out when he took a come-backer off the shin and was knocked out of the game after 3 1/3 innings against the New York Yankees on July 7 (Brewers would win 9-4). He had pitched just four innings in each of his previous two starts, allowing a combined 12 runs on 16 hits in a pair of losses. Guerra faced the Pirates on June 21, giving up three runs and seven hits along with a season-high five walks in a 4-3 Milwaukee win (he had a no-decision). Guerra is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four career starts against Pittsburgh (team is 3-1). Nova improved to 4-2 over his last six starts after limiting the Chicago Cubs to two runs on three hits over 6 2/3 innings on July 8, He was touched for four runs and a season-worst 11 hits over seven innings in a loss at Milwaukee on June 22, leaving him 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA in three career starts vs. the Brewers (teams are 1-2).

The pick: The Brewers may be a first-place team but that's not due to any real contributions from Guerra (again, one win in 10 starts!). This marks his first start since the break, after stumbling through an injury-plagued first half of the season. Meanwhile, Nova had nine wins at the break and will continue his best season since going 16-4 with the Yankees in 2011. Pittsburgh is playing much better and gets Marte back for this one and after all, aren't we all waiting for Milwaukee to crash? Let's not forget that his team went 73-89 in 2016 and 68-94 in 2015. Make Pittsburgh a 10* play.