The set-up: The Mets got set to host the Nats for a four-game series at Citi Field back on June 15. New York entered that series having won five of six, while Washington had lost five of six. New York had 'closed' within 8 1/2 games of the Nats and was optimistic it had a chance to take the series and gain some ground. However, the Nats took the first three games of that series by the combined score of 22-9, before the Mets were able to salvage the finale with a 5-1 victory. The Mets were 31-37 in games played through June 18 and found themselves 10 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East. With the all Star break looming this coming Monday through Thursday, not much has changed for these two NL East rivals. On the morning of July 4th, the 38-44 Mets trail the 49-34 Nats by those same 10 1/2 games. The two worst bullpens in the National League (Mets own a 4.93 ERA & the Nats a 5.16 ERA) lived down to their billing last night, as Washington suffered its 14th blown save when Granderson belted a two-out, two-strike pitch for a tying two-run HR in the ninth. However, a trio of Mets relievers then gave it right back in the bottom of the inning on a pair of walks and Ryan Raburn's walk-off single. The Nationals improved to 8-3 this season against the Mets, who have dropped two in a row following a 7-1 run.

The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (3-1 & 3.55 ERA) will start in this early first-pitch of 11:05 ET for the Mets and Joe Ross (4-3 & 5.12 ERA) gets the nod for the Nats. Lugo didn't make his 2017 debut until June 11 but won for the third time in four starts this past Thursday 6-3 at Milwaukee. He allowed three runs on six hits over six innings, his third quality start in his four outings.Lugo's lone defeat came in the previously mentioned series back in mid-June at Citi Field, when he surrendered four runs (three earned) in 6 2/3 innings in a 7-4 loss up against Washington's Strasburg. He is 1-1 with a 2.30 ERA in three games against Washington in his career. Ross was demoted to the minors after allowing five runs over four innings on April 30 but he's starting to come around. He did lose at the Mets on June 18 (vs. deGrom), giving up four runs (two earned) and nine hits over six innings but he has bounced back with consecutive strong starts versus Cincinnati and the Chicago Cubs. Ross is just 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in five career starts (team is 2-3) against the Mets.

The pick: Lugo's done a solid job for the Mets since returning in June from a tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. That said, Ross has also been solid since the start of June, allowing two ERs or less in four of his five starts. I won't ignore Washington's 8-3 record against the Mets here in 2017 and will make the Nats an 8* play.