The set-up: The Cards won 4-3 on Wednesday, after losing 6-5 in Arizona on Tuesday. It's the rubber match of the three-game series this afternoon, as the Diamondbacks seek to bounce back from a loss, just their fourth in the last 20 games! Arizona remained 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, as the Angels edged the Dodgers 3-2 last night in Anaheim. The Cards check in at only 36-41 but with no team playing all that well in the NL Central, sit a modest 3 1/2 games out of first place.

The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (5-5 & 3.86 ERA) starts for St. Louis and Patrick Corbin (6-7 & 4.89 ERA) for Arizona. Lynn's 2017 season had been solid until his last two starts, in which he's lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, giving up seven runs in each contest. It sure hasn't helped that he's allowed six HRs in the two games. Lynn is 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts / team is 5-2) against the Diamondbacks in his career. Corbin lost to Philadelphia in his last outing, despite giving up one run on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings. Like his team, Corbin has fared well at home, going 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA (he's 1-5 with a 7.84 ERA in six road starts). Corbin is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA in three career starts against the Cardinals (teams are 1-2).

The pick: Lynn had allowed two or fewer ERs in 10 of his first 13 starts before his recent troubles (see above) but I'm not ready to buy that those troubles are behind him just yet. Wednesday's loss was just Arizona's third in its last 18 home games and in going 30-11 at home in 2017, the D'backs are averaging 6.20 RPG at Chase Field. Corbin has been solid at home (especially compared to his awful road record) but he's hardly a "shut down" starter. Make the Over a 10* play.