Rogers' Afternoon ASSAULT >> *RED HOT* 16-8 Last 8 Days!
(MLB) Chi Cubs vs. Miami,
Money Line: -178.00 Chi Cubs (Away)
Result: Win
The set-up: No one, surely not the Cubs themselves, thought repeating would be a walk in the park. However, few if any, believed the Cubs would be so inconsistent as the 2017 season approaches its mid-point. The Cubs and Marlins opened a four-game series in Miami on Thursday with Chicago banging out 16 hits in an 11-1 rout. Then, one night later, the Cubs fell 2-0, marking the sixth time they've been shut out this season. That matches their total from all of last season! The teams square off in the third game of the series late this afternoon at Marlins Park with Chicago just a single game over .500 (37-36), while Miami is 33-39. The Marlins have won five straight home series and are 3-2 on their current 10-game homestand.

The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (4-4 & 3.83 ERA) vs will take the mound for Chicago and Justin Nicolino (0-1 & 5.06 ERA) for Miami. Lester had a great second half for Chicago in 2016 but his 2017 season so far has been a disappointment. He did post his second straight quality start Monday against San Diego, allowing two runs on five hits over six innings with seven strikeouts, but he didn't factor in the decision. His struggles on the road this season are real, as he's 1-3 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in six road starts (team is 2-4). Lester has just four LT starts against the Marlins, going 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA (teams are 1-3). Nicolino came off the disabled list Monday to make his first start in nearly three weeks and now makes just his fifth start of 2017 in this one. He was not sharp against Washington this past Monday, allowing six runs (three earned) in three innings, including a pair of HRs. Nicolino has three no-decisions and a loss in his four outings of 2017 but while he owns a 5.06 ERA and 1.69 WHIP plus opponents are batting .299 against him, the Marlins have won his three no-decisions.

The pick: Lester has had his issues in 2017 (especially on the road) but he's a "big-time" pitcher and the bottom line with Nicolino is this, his numbers per nine innings this season are poor across the board. He's allowing too many hits (11.3), too many HRs (2.3), too many walks (3.9) and striking out too few batters (5.6). Make the Cubs an 8* play.