The set-up: Pittsburgh rolled to an 8-1 victory in the opener of its four-game series with the Brewers in Milwaukee last night. The Pirates have won six of nine and are now, five games back of the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. The Brewers lost for just teh second time in seven games but has scored just three runs in their last two games. The four-game series continues tonight and Milwaukee should be concerned with the fact that the Pirates have won seven the last eight meetings at Miller Park.

The pitching matchup: Chad Kuhl (1-6 & 5.61 ERA) starts for Pittsburgh and Zach Davies (7-3 & 4.91 ERA) for Milwaukee. These are two pitchers headed in opposite directions. Kuhl won his 2017 debut against Atlanta (April 8) but is win-less in 12 starts since (Pirates are 2-10). He has pitched five or fewer innings in each of his last 10 starts, including a three-inning scoreless outing against Milwaukee on May 5 in which he didn't return after a rain delay. Kuhl is 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA in three career starts against the Brewers (Pittsburgh is 3-0), so maybe that's something to "hang his hat on!" Meanwhile, Davies lost his first two outings of the season but has won seven of his last eight decisions over 12 starts (Milwaukee is 9-3). The negative is that unlike Kuhl, Davies has had no success against tonight's opponent, going 1-2 with a 9.56 ERA in four career starts against Pittsburgh (Brewers are 2-2).

The pick: I will not attribute much weight to Kuhl's limited success against Milwaukee and will add that Davies' lone career win over Pittsburgh did come this season when he allowed two runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings on May 7. Pittsburgh has lost 10 of Kuhl's last 12 starts, while the Brewers are 9-3 over Davies' last 12. Good enough for me to make Milwaukee a 10* play.