Rogers' 10* NL BEST BET >> 57-35-3 Last 18 Days!
(MLB) Chi Cubs vs. Cincinnati,
Money Line: -172.00 Chi Cubs (Away)
Result: Win
The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds got off to a quick starts in 2017, opening 7-2. Hopes that they could be a be a surprise challenger to the World Series champion Chicago Cubs in the NL Central have taken a hit though, as the Reds have lost five of their last seven. The 9-7 Reds lead the 8-7 Cubs by a half-game entering this weekend three-game home series with Chicago. The Cubs ended a four-game slide with consecutive comeback wins over Milwaukee, 9-7 on Tuesday and 7-4 on Wednesday. The Cubs used Thursday's day off to reconfigure their pitching rotation, flip-flopping the top of the lineup.

The pitching matchup: Left-hander Jon Lester (0-0 & 1.00 ERA) will now get Friday's start for Chicago, matched up against Cincy's Tim Adleman (0-0 & 2.25 ERA). Lester is still looking for his first win of 2017, entering his fourth start. He's got three no-decisions and the Cubs are just 1-2 in those starts, despite him allowing only two ERs on 14 hits with a 17-5 KW ratio over 18 innings. He's got a 1.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .222 BA. A lack of run support has been the main culprit but Lester should be full of confidence here, as he's 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA in nine starts against the Reds (teams are 8-1!). The 29-year-old Adelman made one start at Triple-A Louisville before being called up to pitch four innings in long relief Sunday against Milwaukee. He allowed one run and two hits with five strikeouts in his first big-league outing of the season. He made 13 starts in 2016, going 4-4 with a 4.00 ERA (team was 6-7). He made two starts against the Cubs last season, going 1-0 with a 3.97 ERA (Reds were 1-1).

The pick: Lester is overdue for a win and has an impressive LT record against the Reds, including posting a 2.94 ERA in five outings at Cincinnati. Lester hasn't had much support in his first three starts but note that the Cubs have won 18 of their past 22 games vs. Cincinnati and six of the past seven series. Chicago hit 42 HRs against Reds pitching in 2016, the most in a single season against Cincinnati, while going 15-4 last season against the Reds, including 8-2 at Great American Ball Park. Make the Cubs a 10* play