Rogers' *10* NFL Total of the Day >> RED HOT!
(NFL) Tampa Bay vs. San Diego,
Total: 48.00 | -115.00 Over
Result: Loss
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Bucs have won three in a row and at 6-5, are just one game back of the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South. The Bucs have played some of their best ball on the road this year, going 4-1 SU & ATS away from home. The 5-6 San Diego Chargers find themselves in the brutally tough AFC West, where the Raiders are 9-2, the Chiefs 8-3 and the defending champion Broncos 7-4. Finding a path to the postseason seems most unlikely.

Tampa Bay: The Bucs have pulled off two straight upset wins, first 19-17 at Kansas City (plus-7 1/2 points) and then last Sunday at home, 14-5 over Seattle as a 2 1/2-point home dog. Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 24.0 PPG (19th) on 369.3 YPG (24th) but after the team's 1-3 start when it forced just two turnovers, the Bucs have recorded 18 takeaways in their last seven games and have a 5-2 mark to show for it. QB Jameis Winston's completed 21 of 28 passes against Seattle with two TD passes, which means he's now stretched his streak to 27 straight games with at least one rushing or passing TD to begin his career. Both TD throws went to WR Mike Evans, who ranks third in receptions (73) and second in receiving yards (1,020) on the season. RB Doug Martin (1,402 rushing yards last year) is starting to regain his health and had his best game since returning to the field last Sunday, gaining 87 yards

San Diego: When asked about San Diego QB Rivers, Tampa Bay head coach Dirk Koetter said, "What I see on film is a top-flight NFL quarterback. This guy's a heck of a player, very accurate, great anticipation, full command of their system, gets them in the right play, a lot of calls at the line of scrimmage, incredible touch, tough as nails. That guy's a really good player." Rivers is completing 62.9% for 271.5 YPG with 23 TDs and 12 INTs. He's on pace to top 4,000 passing yards for the eighth time in the last nine seasons and on pace to throw 33 TD passes. RB Melvin Gordon was San Diego's 1st-round pick last year but flopped badly, rushing for just 641 yards (on 3.5 YPC) while not scoring a single TD. He's got 908 rushing yards this season and has nine rushing TDs while adding two more TDs on 37 catches!

The pick: San Diego was 9th in total yards last year (371.8 YPG) but weren't able to translate that into points, averaging only 20.0 PPG (25th). However, the team has worked that out here in 2016, gaining a similar amount of yards per game (361.1) but the 2016 Chargers are scoring 28.8 PPG to rank 4th. This is "last stand" time for the Chargers (maybe the season is already lost?) but I'm not quite convinced the Bucs are up to winning four in a row or can keep up their fine play on the road. The Bucs have scored just 33 points the last two weeks, while allowing only 22 points and while they are forcing TOs, the Chargers are vulnerable in that department, as their 23 giveaways are the most in the NFL. A low scoring game will be the outcome in this one. The Under is a 10* play.