Rogers' Game Of the Week (10* NFL Total) >> 19-10-1 This Week!
(NFL) Kansas City vs. Denver,
Total: 38.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
The set-up: Along with the NFC East, the AFC West has been the NFL's two-best divisions in 2016 and Sunday in Denver, the 7-3 Broncos and Chiefs, who both trail the 8-2 Raiders, get set to meet for the first of two games in a five-week span (play again in Week 16 at KC).

Kansas City: The Chiefs' offense has struggled all season thanks in large part to a rash of injuries to its RBs and now its WRs. Jeremy Maclin is doubtful with a groin injury and rookie Tyreek Hill is questionable with a knee issue. KC ranks 22nd in both rushing (97.9 YPG on 4.1 YPC) and passing (235.9 YPG), leaving them 19th in points scored at 22.2 PPG. QB Alex Smith has as many detractors as fans with his strength being not making many mistakes and his weakness being not making many big plays. He has just just four INTs in 302 attempts but he also just nine TD passes. The Chiefs just saw their five-game winning streak end last Sunday when they lost 19-17 at home to Tampa Bay), as the team's inability to finish off drives eventually caught up with them.

Denver: the Broncos won last year's Super Bowl on the strength of its defense and this year's unit is allowing 318.0 YPG to rank fourth and while the team's 18.9 PPG ranks eighth, be aware that Seattle's ranks No. 1 in that category but allows less then two PPG less at 17.3! After all is said and dome this year, Denver will likely look back and be relieved it didn't sign Brock Osweiler. The FA decided to "take his talents to Houston" and the it's the Broncos smiling these days, not the Texans. Osweiler has been a big disappointment, averaging only 187.4 YPG passing for Houston with 12 TDs and 10 INTs for an awful QB rating of 74.9. The undrafted Trevor Siemian is no star but he's put up numbers slightly better than Osweiler and the Broncos didn't have to invest in him with a four-year, $72 million contract, $37 million of which was guaranteed.

The pick: The Chiefs lost for the first time in six games last week but we should have seen this coming. KC has just one offensive TD over the last three games, with the team averaging only 18.7 PPG in that span. When a team has one offensive TD, 10 FGs and one "pick six" over a three-game span, "trouble‘s brewing!" Denver opened this season having gone 21-3 against AFC West foes but just 1-2 vs AFC West opponents here in 2016. However, the Broncos are 4-1 SU and ATS at home this season, losing only to Atlanta, which won for the 4th straight time in that one plus rookie Paxton Lynch was making his first-ever NFL start at QB. "Big game" with "high stakes" and while one could argue that favors an "under," thsi total is so low I'm making the Over a 10* play.