Rogers' 10* NBA Total MASSACRE >> 14-6 NBA Run
(NBA) Memphis vs. Charlotte,
Total: 194.00 | -102.00 Under
Result: Win
The set-up: The 8-5 Memphis Grizzlies visit the 8-4 Charlotte Hornets, who opened the season 6-1 but have gone a more modest 2-3 their last five. Meanwhile, Memphis will take a four-game winning streak into Monday night's game, a stretch in which the Grizzlies have allowed just 84.5 PPG.

Memphis: First-year Memphis head coach David Fizdale had an important film session a week ago. It featured footage of a 10-point loss in Milwaukee that dropped the Grizzlies to 4-5, highlighting many of the defensive deficiencies on a team known for defending. The Grizzlies had allowed over 100 points six times in their first nine games but ever-since, things have improved, especially defensively. I noted the four-game average of 84.5 PPG allowed but in back-to-back wins against the Mavericks and Timberwolves, Memphis has allowed 64 and 71 points, respectively, while holding those two opponents to a combined 33.6 percent shooting (46-of-137). PG Conley leads the team in scoring (18.3) and assists (5.9), while center Gasol is second in scoring at 17.5 PPG. PF Zach Randolph is no longer a starter (he's come off the bench in all 12 games) but he's still the team's third-leading scorer (14.5) and its top rebounder (8.0).

Charlotte: The Hornets are also one of the league's better defensive teams, allowing 101.2 PPG (11th) on 43.3% shooting (5th). However, the Hornets blew a 14-point lead through the opening minute of the fourth quarter on Saturday at New Orleans and wound up losing 121-116 in OT (A.D. scored 38 points!). Charlotte gave up 23 fast break points, 14 three-pointers and committed 15 turnovers. "There's a difference between doing the right thing and losing and then not doing the right thing that allows the other team to get going," Hornets coach Steve Clifford said. "So, that's what's disappointing is if we're going to be the team I think we can be, you can't play like that." Kemba Walker (25.3-4.3-5.5) scored 25 points on 10-of-25 shooting, marking the 11th straight game he reached 20 points. Reserve Marco Belinelli (9.8) added 22 points and Frank Kaminsky (10.7) had 15. Batum, a FA signee from Portland two years ago, continues to be terrific, averaging 14.6-6.8-5.0.

The pick: Charlotte took both meetings last season, including a 123-99 win in Memphis on Dec. 11, 2015 The Hornets are 7-2 ATS when favored this year and while the Memphis defense has been suffocating recently, I believe the Hornets, who are 5-1 to the over in six home games this season (averaging 107.3 PPG), will control the game's flow. The Over is a 10* play.