Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers had his lowest completion percentage (60.7) and passing yards per game (238.8) since taking over as the team's starter in 2015 due to the absence of WR Jordy Nelson, who missed the entire 2015 season with a torn ACL (Nelson had 98 receptions for 1,519 yards and 13 TDs in 2014). Nelson had a relatively quiet 2016 debut with six catches for 32 yards but Rodgers had two TD passes and ran for another in a 27-23 victory at Jacksonville. Green Bay's defense held the Jaguars to 48 yards rushing but was burned for 320 yards through the air and barely held on for the win.

Minnesota: Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is the ‘king' of the preseason for sports bettors, going 11-2 ATS, and let's also note that he's now also also 24-9 ATS in the regular season (he begins his third season here in 2016), after a 77-yard INT return and 24-yard fumble return for TDs sparked a run of 25 unanswered points for the Vikings after they were held off the scoreboard in the first half. QB Shaun Hill had little to do with Minnesota's 25-16 Week 1 win plus Adrian Peterson managed only 31 yards rushing on 19 carries. Minnesota was rescued by its defense in the win at Tennessee and by all indications, Sam Bradford will get his first start for the Vikings.

The pick: After all, didn't Minnesota get him to play him? The Vikings sent first and fourth-round picks to Philadelphia for the former overall No. 1 pick and while he hasn't lived up to expectations (he's 25-37-1 as a starter with a career QB rating of 81.0), Bradford's got a big-time arm that should fit nicely in offensive coordinator Norv Turner's scheme. Green Bay's Rodgers has at least two TD passes in 11 of his last 13 meetings against the Vikings and I believe this over/under number is way too low! Make the Over a 10* play.