1* free play on PHI vs. CIN Over 8.5...

The Cincinnati Reds are expected to be one of the weaker teams in the National League this season, but they are proving that their still better than the Phillies. The Reds have taken the first two games of this series, and they go for the sweep this afternoon at Great American Ballpark. My money is on the total to go over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Red hand the ball to rookie right-hander Robert Stephenson, who makes his major league debut after being selected as a first round pick in 2011. The 23 year old struggled this Spring, but 11 strikeouts in just 10 innings was encouraging. The Phillies will send Charlie Morton to the mound, and his best days in the majors are almost certainly behind him. He was 3-5 with a 5.70 ERA in 11 starts on the road last year, before losing his spot in the rotation.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Reds are very familiar with Morton, and he hasn't fooled the Cincinnati veterans. Joey Votto is hitting .290 with seven RBIs in 31 at bats against him, while Brandon Phillips is batting .324 with a pair of doubles and four RBIs over 37 at bats lifetime.

3. X-Factor - The Reds have gone over in eight of their last 10 home games, while the two teams have gone over in 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Selection: This is a play on the Phillies@Reds to go OVER the total (Free)