The Villanova Wildcats were upset in the Big East Tournament Final by Seton Hall, but they have a favorable matchup in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. The Wildcats will face minnows UNC Ashville. Villanova is a double-digit favorite, but I still think the bookmakers could have made this line even higher. My money is on the Wildcats.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Bulldogs finished third in the Big South with a conference record of 12-6. But their non-conference schedule includes losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M, and they only scored 47 points in a 28-point loss to the Aggies. The Wildcats are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 non-conference games.

2. Free Throw Shooting - These tournament games are often decided at the free throw line, and that certainly favors the Wildcats. Villanova is among the nation's best, hitting 77.7 percent from the charity stripe this season. The Bulldogs hit just above 70 percent, and they were just 18-of-29 (62.1%) from the line in their last game against Winthrop.

3. X-Factor - The Wildcats are hitting a staggering 43 percent from beyond the arc over their last five games.

Selection: This is a play on the Villanova Wildcats (10*)