The Pirates have split the first two games of this series in Cincinnati, and they look good as the favorite in the series finale tonight. The Reds have lost six of their last eight home games, and they send a struggling rookie to the mound tonight. I'll take Pittsburgh minus the runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Cincinnati hands the ball to 24 year old right-hander Keyvius Sampson, who is off to a rough start in the big leagues. Sampson (2-3, 6.68 ERA) gave up three runs on five hits and three walks in just three innings in his last outing. He surrendered three runs in five innings of work in a 3-0 home loss to Pittsburgh earlier this season. The Pirates counter with J.A. Happ, who has an ERA of 0.60 in his last five starts.

2. Jung Ho Kang - The Pirates third baseman was 2-for-5 with a home run and a double last night, and he's hitting .314 since the All Start break.

3. X-Factor - The Pirates bullpen ranks third overall in the majors with an ERA of 2.73.


Selection: This is a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (8*)