The Philadelphia Phillies entered this three-game series against the San Diego Padres on the back of four home-losses to the New York Mets. They've picked themselves up though and are looking good to complete a sweep of their own this afternoon and hand the Padres a sixth loss in seven games.

Here ae my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Padres hand the ball to James Shields (9-6, 3.89 ERA) who is 0-4 with a 5.63 ERA in his last eight road starts. He gave up four runs on eight hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings of an 8-3 loss at Washington his last start and he has a 6.35 ERA in three career starts at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies will counter with Alec Asher who is making his major league debut. He's 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA over his last three starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley and likely to be pumped up to the maximum here. The Padres have a lowly .227 team batting average over their last six games so Asher might have a rather quiet debut.

2. Situational - The Padres have lost seven of Shields' last eight road start and each of his last four when playing on four days of rest. The Phillies are 5-1 in their last six when hosting a team with a losing record.

3. X-Factor - The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five games with umpire Jordan Baker behind home plate.

Selection: This is a play on the Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (8*)