1* free play on the Baltimore Orioles...
The Baltimore Orioles have won five of their last six with the lone loss coming against the division-leading New York Mets who they defeated 5-4 last night. The Minnesota Twins meanwhile have won only two of their last seven and are off a three-game sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees in the Bronx. Odds are they'll struggle at Camden Yards as well.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Twins hand the ball to Tyler Duffey (1-1, 6.75 ERA) as he'll make his third appearance in the big leagues. He held Cleveland scoreless with one allowed hit but five walks yielded in six innings home at Target Field his last start but the 24 year old was lit up for six runs on five hits and two walks with two homers in just two innings his only road start. The Orioles will counter with Miguel Gonzalez (9-8, 4.42) who is 0-2 with a 6.64 ERA in his last four starts. His most recent outing was a decent one though when he limited the A's to three runs on six hits and three walks in seven innings of a 4-3 win not factoring in the decision. He was 1-1 with a respectable 3.09 ERA in two starts against the Twins last season.

2. Situational - The Twins have lost 14 of their last 17 games as an underdog in the span of +110 to +150 and they're 3-13 in their last 16 against a team with a winning record. The Orioles meanwhile are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a favorite and 8-1 in their last nine when hosting a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

3. X-Factor - Baltimore's bullpen ranks among the best in the major leagues with a 2.68 ERA for the year while the Twins' is among the worst with a 4.22 mark.

Selection: This is a play on the Baltimore Orioles (Free)