The Toronto Blue Jays are battling it out with the New York Yankees for the AL East top-spot and picked up an important "W" against Philadelphia Phillies last night after dropping two of three to the aforementioned Yankees. The Phillies meanwhile are anchored at the bottom of the NL East and have won just one of their last seven games. I don't see them muster up the motivation needed to beat one of the most dangerous teams in baseball at the moment.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Phillies hand the ball to 25 year old rookie Adam Morgan (3-4, 4.11 ERA) who'll make a fifth appearance in front of the home town crowd tonight. He's 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA over the previous four and was lit up for four runs on seven hits with a homer and three walks ni five innigs of a 6-2 loss to Atlanta his most recent home-start. The Blue Jays will counter with the red hot Mark Buehrle (13-5, 3.31 ERA) who at the age of 36 is having one of his best seasons ever. He's 7-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 13 starts since giving up four runs on six hits in nine innings of a 6-4 win against the Twins back on May 29, and has held opponents to three runs or fewer in each start since.

2. Sizzlin' Hot - The Jays have won 13 of their last 15 games overall and they're 12-3 in Buehrle's last 15 road starts against a team with a losing record.

3. X-Factor - Buehrle is 3-0 with a 1.55 ERA in his last four starts against Philadelphia.

Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays (5*)