The San Diego Padres spent big bucks this off-season, but they are in danger of ending up right back where they have been for the last several years. They come into tonight's home game versus Arizona just 1.5 games out of last place in the NL West. The D'Backs have been trending in the other direction, winning eight of their last 14. I like Arizona plus the runs here in San Diego tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Andrew Cashner will be on the mound for the Padres, and he's still looking for his first home win this season. Cashner (2-9, 4.35 ERA) allowed seven runs in just four innings in a loss to Arizona in his last start. He's 0-5 with a 4.29 ERA in six starts at home, and he's 0-3 against Arizona already. The Diamondbacks will counter with Jeremy Hellickson, who pitched opposite Cashner in a home win over the Padres in his last start.

2. Paul Goldschmidt - The D'Backs slugger was 1-for-4 with a pair of RBIs last night, and he's hitting .352 with 20 home runs and 62 RBIs, ranking near the top of the majors in all categories.

3. X-Factor - The Padres are 0-6 in Cashners last 6 starts vs. Diamondbacks, and they've lost 12 of his last 16 starts overall.

Selection: This is a play on the Arizona D'Backs +1.5 (8*)