The Cincinnati Reds have won six of their last nine overall, and they didn't miss by much last night in the series opener at Citi Field losing by a score of 2-1. The Mets have been trending in the other direction, winning just two of their last nine overall. I like the visitors here as the underdog in this afternoon's contest.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Mets send their ace Matt Harvey to the hill, but he may not be 100% healthy in his return from Tommy John surgery Harvey (7-5, 3.18 ERA) allowed one run on six hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 1-0 loss to Atlanta in his last start. He's just 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA in June, and he's given up a dozen home runs already this season. The Reds counter with Michael Lorenzen, who is coming off back-to-back wins. Overall, his numbers don't look much different than Harvey's.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Reds lineup is hitting a combined .308 in previous meetings with Harvey, and Joey Votto is 2-for-3 with a home run and a pair of RBIs against the Mets ace.

3. X-Factor - The Mets are hitting .167 over their last nine games, and they rank near the bottom of the league batting .235 for the season.

Selection: This is a play on the Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (8*)