The Cincinnati Reds will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ballpark tonight, and we might expect a pitcher's duel in Game 1 of this series. I like the home team to edge out a win here against a Philly team that has struggled at the plate.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Mike Leake will be on the mound for the Reds, and he looked pretty sharp in his last start. Leake (2-4, 4.40 ERA) took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, but failed to get a decision as the bullpen blew a four run lead in a loss at Philadelphia. The Phillies counter with Cole Hamels, who was in line for the loss in that game, starting opposite Leake.

2. Philly Bats - It doesn't matter how good your pitching is if you can't score runs, and the Phillies have scored fewer runs than any other team in the majors.

3. X-Factor - The Phillies are just 7-20 on the road this season, and they've lost five of their last six at Cincinnati.

Selection: This is a play on the Cincinnati Reds (10*)