The Milwaukee Brewers come into Pittsburgh tonight as winners of four of their last seven overall, and they will be a big underdog to the Pirates. I like the Brewers chances here on the road in Game 1.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to A.J. Burnett, and he's on a roll lately. Burnett (6-1, 2.20 ERA) gave up four runs on eight hits over just five frames in a win at Pittsburgh in his latest start. He hasn't been very successful against the Brewers, with a record of 0-4 with a 3.48 ERA in his last five starts. The Brewers will counter with Jimmy Nelson, who has been great in two starts versus Pittsburgh earlier this season.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Brewers big bats have had success against Burnett, with John Segura hitting .364, and Ryan Braun hitting .353 lifetime versus the veteran.

3. X-Factor - The Pirates are 0-5 in Burnett's last 5 starts vs. Brewers.

Selection: This is a play on the Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (8*)