The Seattle Mariners will host the New York Yankees in Game 1 of a three game set at Safeco tonight, and we should be in for a pitcher's duel with Mariners ace Felix Hernandez starting opposite former Mariner Michael Pineda. As good as Hernandez has been, I think the Mariners are a little overpriced here given their poor play of late.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - (8-1, 1.91 ERA) is coming off a complete game shutout at Tropicana Field. He's been the best pitcher in the majors this season, but he often gets very little run support. The Yankees counter with Michael Pineda, who has been having a fine season in his own right. Pineda (6-2. 3.36 ERA) gave up just one run on six hits over 6.2 frames in a win over the Royals in his latest outing. He's won three of his four starts on the road this year.

2. Close Games - The Mariners have played a major league high eight games decided in extra-innings, and 23 of their 60 games played this season have been decided by one run.

3. X-Factor - Seattle ranks 28th in the majors with just 186 runs scored. Only the White Sox and the Phillies have scored fewer.

Selection: This is a play on the New York Yankees +1.5 (8*)