The Milwaukee Bucks deserve plenty of credit for competing in this series versus Chicago, but the Bulls are likely to end it here at home in Game 5. The Bulls haven't lost at the United Center since mid March, and Milwaukee hasn't won in Chicago since December of 2013.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Bulls have covered the spread in five of their last six games overall, an in eight of their last 10 versus the Bucks. The Bucks have failed to cover in five straight visits to Chicago.

2. Derrick Rose - The former MVP has been dominant in this series so far, but he took full responsibility for the loss in Game 4. It was Rose who was stripped of the ball in the dying seconds, and then burned by Jarryd Bayless on a backdoor cut that proved to be the game winner. A player of his caliber is likely to respond with a big effort in his next game. "we play again soon, so get this game out of my mind. We're going to come out and play hard. I can say that." said Rose.

3. X-Factor - The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games, and they've covered the spread in seven of their last 10 when playing on one day's rest.

Selection: This is a play on the Chicago Bulls (10*)