The Dallas Mavericks came up just short in Game 3, losing by a score of 130-128 to Houston, putting them on the brink of elimination here in Game 4. I don't expect Rick Carlisle's team to lay down here, and they should give the Rockets a run for their money tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Home Cookin' - The Mavs boast a respectable 27-14 home record this season, and home court has been key in this series in recent seasons. The home team has won 10 of the last 14 meetings between these two teams.

2. James Harden - The MVP candidate scored 24 points in each of the first two games of this series, as Dallas did a pretty good job of containing him. He went off for a playoff career high 42 points in Game 3. Expect Carlisle to put a heavy emphasis on not letting Harden beat them, and I think we'll see him struggle to repeat his Game 3 performance.

3. X-Factor - At 36 years old, Dirk Nowitzki still has it in him to take over a game. He nearly willed the Mavs to victory in Game 3, with 34 points on 10-of-19 shooting. Expect Dirk to have another big game here in Game 4.

Selection: This is a play on the Dallas Mavericks.(10*)