The Red Sox and the Orioles are in a first place tie at the top of the AL East, and they'll play the final game of this four game series at Fenway on Monday. The home team will try to salvage a split after dropping the last two games, and I like their chances here in this early game in Boston.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Red Sox will send Justin Masterson to the mound, hoping he'll be better than he was in his most recent start. Masterson was hammered by the Nats, surrendering seven runs on eight hits in just 4.2 innings. The Orioles will counter with Wei Yin Chen, who has been solid so far this season. Chen has been hit hard by some of Boston's big bats.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - David Ortiz is hitting .381 with a home run and five RBIs in 21 at bats versus Chen, and Dustin Pedroia is hitting .519 with five RBIs in 27 at bats versus the left-hander.

3. X-Factor - Only Tampa Bay's bullpen has a higher ERA than Baltimore, who's relief pitcher's have surrendered 24 runs in 45 innings. The Red Sox relievers have allowed nine fewer runs in five more innings.

Selection: This is a play on the Boston Red Sox (10*)