If I told you at the beginning of the year that that Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin would make it to the Final Four, you wouldn't have been surprised. Few would have expected Michigan State to make it this far in the tournament though, but this is a team that has peaked at the right time. It might be asking too much for them to beat Duke, but I'll take the Spartans as a significant dog getting a handful of points.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Spartans are a much improved team since they lost to Duke at the beginning of the season. They were very close to upsetting Wisconsin in the Big-10 Title Game, and they've knocked off some good teams here in the tournament. Last week it was Louisville, but previously they upset Virginia and handled Georgia and Oklahoma.

2. Experience - There is no doubting Duke's talent, but this teams lacks the experience that all the rest of the teams in the Final Four have. There are four freshman that log significant minutes for Duke, three of those are in the starting five (Okafor, Winslow and Jones).

3. X-Factor - Jahlil Okafor hasn't been able to be as much of a factor in the last two games, scoring just six points against Utah, and nine in the win over Gonzaga.

Selection: This is a play on the Michigan State Spartans (10*)