The Illinois State Redbirds will face the Evansville Aces in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on Friday. The Redbirds defeated the Aces in Evansville just last week, winning by a score of 69-67 in overtime. After seeing the Aces come up short at home, I don't like their chances of hanging with Illinois State here at a neutral site.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Purple Aces have lost three straight, and six of their last nine overall. They only covered the spread in two of those nine games.

2. DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell - The junior guard scored 16 points on 7-of-15 shooting for Illinois State last week in the win over Evansville, and he's had the hot hand of late, scoring 40 points over his last two starts.

3. X-Factor - The Aces shot just 18-of-55 (32.7%) from the field, and 0-for-10 from beyond the arc in a 77-51 loss at Illinois State on February 3.

Selection: This is a play on the Illinois State Redbirds (8*)