The Tampa Bay Lightning are off a disappointing 4-3 loss to their local rival the Panthers. I like their chances of bouncing back with a big win tonight though as they're hosting the worst team in the NHL. The Buffalo Sabres have already given up on the season looking to rebuild for the next. Tampa meanwhile needs to get going in time for the playoffs and should prove to be the better team tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Goaltending - Buffalo traded their top netminder Jonas Enroth to Dallas a couple of weeks ago and now when Michal Neuvirth started to heat up he was sent to the Islanders in exchange for Chad Johnson. Johnson conceded five goals to the offensively challenged Carolina Hurricanes his last time out and is posting a 3.08 GAA for the season but is expected to get the nod for his new club right away. The other option is giving Anders Lindback his debut, he was 0-7-0 with a 3.95 GAA for the Stars before coming over in the Enroth trade. Tampa Bay on the other hand can turn to Ben Bishop who is 6-0-1 behind a 1.81 GAA over his career against the Sabres.

2. Home Cookin' - The Lightning have won five of their last seven on home ice, covering the puckline in each win. They defeated the Blackhawks 4-0 their last time out at Amalie Arena and have won four of the last five meetings with the Sabres in Tampa.

3. X-Factor - Steven Stamkos is leading the Lightning with his 35 goals and has three goals over his last two games. He has tallied two goals and two assists over the previous four meetings with the Sabres this season.

Selection: This is a play on the Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (10*)