The North Carolina Tar Heels will host the N.C. State Wolfpack at Chapel Hill on Tuesday, and the visitors are a significant underdog in this match. These two conference rivals have a history of playing close games, and I think the best bet tonight is to take the points.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - North Carolina has won it's last two versus the Wolfpack, but by a combined three points. N.C. State has covered the spread in four of the last six meetings, and has only failed to cover the spread twice in it's last 12 on the road.

2. Momentum - The Wolfpack are coming off back-to-back wins, one of those an upset on the road at Louisville. They need to keep it going though if they want to earn a spot in the tournament. "Recently things have gone our way," Ralston Turner said. "We've still got four more games to go, and we're going to have to continue to bring the same type of energy."

3. X-Factor - The Tar Heels have only covered the spread in one of their last seven home games, while the Wolfpack are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 versus teams with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the N.C. State Wolfpack (8*)