The Milwaukee Brewers have owned Pittsburgh here in 2019 winning eight of the first 10 meetings, but the Pirates enter this contest as the hotter of the two teams and I'm happy to back the home team at this price.

Pirates left-hander Steven Brault (3-1, 4.29 ERA) is coming off a solid month of June where he went 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA. That stretch included two solid starts against Milwaukee with just three runs allowed over 11 innings of work.

The Brewers hand the ball to righty Zach Davies (7-2, 3.24 ERA) who is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three encounters against the Pirates this season, but note that he has posted a 5.08 ERA in 12 career starts against them. The current Pirates roster is batting a combined .305 over 151 at-bats against Davies.

Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Brewers are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Pirates are 6-2 in Brault's last 8 home starts. Brewers are 2-5 in Davies' last 7 road starts.

10* play on Pittsburgh Pirates.