10* MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF YEAR - +$12K L17!
(NCAAB) Missouri State vs. Illinois State,
Point Spread: 4.50 | -110.00 Missouri State (Away)
Result: Win
10* Missouri State (MISSOURI VALLEY GOY)

We base our picks on many different things. This one here is just a great situational play, that's also backed by some strong supporting ATS trends that can't be ignored. Missouri State is 15-14, but only 4-9 on the road, while Illinois State is 14-15 overall, including 9-6 at home. The Bears will be highly motivated here to stop a two game SU slide. Missouri State has now lost four straight ATS, but note despite a 93-78 setback at Belmont as a 7.5-point dog, the Bears are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more ATS losses in a row. The biggest reason though behind this play is 'revenge.' The Bears lost 69-60 as seven-point favorites at home to Illinois State back in January, and note that Missouri State is a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Redbirds three-game win streak came to an end last time out in a 48-45 loss at Bradley, and off that "near hit" as a 12.5-point dog, all signs point to a letdown here finally in our opinion. While the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Missouri State!

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