10* Michigan (BIG TEN GOM)

Neither team has been playing great of late, but we think there are enough factors working in favor of the Wolverines here to pull off the cover at home here on Wednesday night. The Badgers are the better team for sure in this battle overall, but Wisconsin is playing poorly right now. It's 16-6 overall, but it's just 3-4 on the road. It's coming off back-to-back losses and now will have its hands full with this 7-15 Michigan side that's 4-7 at home after a 69-59 home loss to Rutgers last time out. That's five straight straight-up and against the spread losses for the Wolverines, but that's significant to note because Michigan has in fact responded really well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 against the spread in its last nine after five or more straight up and against the spread losses in a row. The Wolverines have a good offense still and we think that'll be a difference maker in this one as Michigan enters averaging 77 points per game. Wisconsin is decent defensively, allowing just 67.8 points per game, but as outlined at the start, this Badgers team isn't nearly as good on the road as at home. And that's going to be the case here we think as well facing this hungry and motivated home side. One other thing which swings the pendulum in Michigan's favor here is that the Wolverines for sure benefit from having their dynamic sophomore point guard Dug McDaniel available for this game. McDaniel is serving a six-game road suspension for academic problems and he's the Wolverines' leading scorer at 16.8 PPG. This one has all the makings of a "nail biter;" grab the points, the play is indeed on the Wolverines!

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