This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. I had a big play on the OVER in Miami's last game with Chicago, but the teams would start the second half slowly and be unable to mount consistent offense down the stretch. The Heat have now seen the total dip below the number in 11 straight games. Milwaukee comes into this contest having seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three, but previous to that had played to a string of 12 straight UNDERs. A quick look at their head-to-head matchup reveals the total dipping below the posted number in four straight, including in both games they've played this year (both Bucks victories). I'll be the first to admit that the "Law Of Averages" is flawed in many ways, but I have always believed that lopsided numbers have a way of naturally "correcting" themselves over the short, mid and long term; a whole bunch of UNDER trends collide in this one, shifting the value to the higher number in my opinion. Milwaukee is 22-22 and is two games up on the Heat (20-24) for sixth in the East, from a situational stand point this is about as strong as you could possibly hope for, I think each of these teams will push the pace from the outset in this important contest and a faster game = more shots and more shots = more points. These two teams simply don't play to a lot of OVERs, but all signs finally point to a higher scoring affair.

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