This is a 10* SOUTHWEST DIVISION TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Dallas Mavericks and the Memphis Grizzlies.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total stay below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Memphis enters having won four-straight, most recently beating Orlando before then topping Northwest Division-leading Portland 102-98 at home the following night. The last time these teams met, it was a barn-burner, the Grizz would pull away for a 114-105 win on December 9th. This is definitely a revenge game for the visitors though as the Mavericks have lost the last two straight in the series and come in with a bit of defensive momentum after beating Denver 97-89 on Friday. The Mavs certainly looked a lot better on the defensive end of the floor, allowing the Nuggets to shoot just 41.0 percent after giving up an average of 112.7 points and 48.8 percent shooting during a 1-2 road trip. This play however is mainly based on strong UNDER trends that each team has exhibited in this spot, note that Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine this year when playing with two days of rest and in ten of 14 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. And note that Memphis has seen the total stay below the number in 37 of its last 59 after three or more consecutive SU wins. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move here.

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