This is an 8* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Iowa and Illinois

Because of some situational and trend based reasons, I feel that this contest will fall below the posted number. Iowa is a run first team, Greg Davis plans to call a run on first down, a run on second and then a short crossing route on third. The RB unit is led by Mark Weisman, who does not really possess big play ability (picture Marshawn Lynch without any game-breaking runs). The offensive line is talented and pass protection for Iowa has been solid this year. But overall, we can expect Iowa to try and establish the run game today, expect to see a heavy dose of zone running plays, something that has become the norm since Kirk Ferentz began his tenure there. QB Jake Rudock does not have a cannon for arm, but is accurate enough. Rudock actually lost his job to backup CJ Beathard earlier in the year, but has since moved back into the starters role. The Illinois defense does not have to worry about the long ball, can stack the box and be careful for any intermediate passes. Look for the Illini defense to concentrate on getting a push up front, much like it did against Minnesota two weeks ago. Defensively the Hawkeyes are solid and will definitely be looking to atone for the 52 points Minnesota put on it last time out. Iowa catches a break though today, the Illinois offensive line is in shambles. The Illini's problems on offense lie in redzone execution, a weak point all year and it doesn't help that oft-maligned QB Wes Lunt is injured. Basically the unit will have to be perfect to take down Iowa today. But Illinois will have a chance at an upset today because of its strong defensive line and the fact that it's coming off its bye week. Note that Iowa has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 points range, while Illinois has seen it dip below the number in three of its last five following a two week break. All signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one.

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