The Reds with Johnny Cueto pitching at home during the day against the Cubs looks like a sure thing. The oddsmaker sees it that way, too, installing the Reds as better than a 2/1 favorite.

I can't and won't lay nearly that high of a juice on a game. But there's still a way to collect on Cueto without damaging your bank roll if an upset should occur - laying 1 1/2 runs with Cincinnati on the run line.

The Reds and Pirates have been the hottest teams in the National League during the past four weeks going 17-8. Cincinnati's last nine victories have ALL been by more than one run.

The Cubs have lost by more than one run in six of their last seven defeats. Their average losing margin during this span is 5.1 runs.

Cueto and Adam Wainwright have been the best right-handers in the National League. Cueto has a 1.61 home ERA this season and a 1.17 ERA in day games. This is the early game of a doubleheader.

The young Cubs haven't seen Cueto this year. Cueto has dominated Chicago going 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his previous seven starts against the Cubs. Star closer Aroldis Chapman said he's ready to pitch again if needed. Chapman had tweaked his hamstring prior to this past Sunday's game.

Cubs starter Travis Wood has a 6.16 road ERA. The Cubs have lost 26 of the past 35 times Wood has faced an opponent with a winning record. Wood has surrendered 22 walks in 34 2/3 innings since June 5, the most in the National League. The Reds have the power and hitter's ballpark to take full advantage of Wood's wildness.