This is a question of trust. The Mountain West Conference has had a dismal point spread record in the NCAA Tournament, while the Big Ten Conference is proving how strong it really is going 10-2 SU and ATS so far in the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State with Tom Izzo is one of those Big Ten teams I trust the most. I believe the Spartans match up well to New Mexico. The Spartans have tournament experience having reached at least the second round in 17 of the last 20 NCAA Tournament. 

The Spartans have the superior depth and defense, ranking No. 2 in the country in 3-point defense, and hold a backcourt edge with the necessary defenders to bother Donovan Dent, who the Aggies heavily rely upon.

Michigan State got its kinks out rolling past Bryant, 87-62, two days ago. I'm looking for a better performance from the Spartans. 

New Mexico defeated a disappointing and unimpressive Marquette in the first round. The Lobos don't have the signature victories Michigan State has. I don't believe they can stay within single digits of the Spartans.