Yes, an anticipated Vanderbilt letdown after upsetting Alabama last week is fully expected. 

But that's not the only reason why I like Kentucky to cover this number.
 
The Wildcats have one of the best defenses in the country. They give up the fifth-fewest yards per game and rank 11th in scoring defense holding foes to 13.4 points a game. The Wildcats held the powerful offenses of Georgia and Mississippi to season-lows in points. 

Kentucky's offense is not on par with its defense. But Brock Vandragriff is improving at quarterback and faces arguably the SEC's weakest defense. Vanderbilt ranks 90th in pass defense. The Commodores are giving up an average of 33.6 points during their past three games. 

Vanderbilt runs a sophisticated offense that features a lot of triple-option looks. Kentucky not only catches a break with Vanderbilt in a prime letdown spot, but the Wildcats were idle last week. That gave them ample practice time to key on Vanderbilt's intricate attack and quarterback Diego Pavia. 

Kentucky has won seven of the past eight times the teams have met. The Wildcats are 8-2 SU and ATS during the last 10 meetings. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 26-13 on his premium/free college football picks this season for 67 percent. Stephen has three premium CFB plays going Saturday in addition to this free selection headed by his SEC Game of the Month.)