The Pirates are one of biggest surprises of the early baseball season going 20-13. That record would be even better if Pittsburgh hadn't gotten swept three games in Tampa by the 27-6 Rays.

The Blue Jays have a losing road record and are starting Jose Berrios.

That's enough for me to back Pittsburgh as a home 'dog. Toronto is 0-4 in Berrios' four road starts this season. Berrios' road ERA is 7.77.

I'm not thrilled with Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo. He's 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA. But it's not enough for me to get off the Pirates taking a plus price.

Note, too, the Pirates are 11-3 in their last 14 games on a grass field. Their home stadium, PNC Park, is a grass field. The Blue Jays play on artificial turf. Toronto has lost four of its last five games played on a natural surface.