The Dolphins went into their bye last week off an impressive 39-17 victory against the Browns. But in their previous six games, the Dolphins lost to the Bengals, Jets and Vikings and beat the Steelers by 6, Lions by 4 and Bears by 3. So I find this spread to be inflated.

Yes, the Dolphins are good this season. But they have flaws. They are not a great team that can cover two touchdowns. Great teams don't squeeze past the Steelers, Lions and Bears by a combined winning margin of 4.3 points.

Miami might not have Raheem Mostert and their kicking game could be in trouble. Jason Sanders ranks fourth-from-the-bottom in field goal percentage accuracy and punter Thomas Morstead has been dealing with illness.

The Texans should get a boost with a quarterback switch from David Mills to Kyle Allen. Mills has been terrible on the road. Allen is a career backup, but he might provide a spark here. He has Dameon Pierce to rely upon. Pierce leads all rookie running backs with 780 yards rushing and 915 scrimmage yards.