This isn't going to be an easy sell with the 3-9 short-handed Hornets, losers of six in a row, and missing LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. But hear me out.

Miami is 4-7. The Heat haven't played a good game in two weeks. They've won only one game by more than seven points all season. Miami is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in its last six games with losses during this span to the Kings, slow-starting Warriors, Pacers and Blazers.

The Heat might not have Tyler Herro, he's second on the team in points and rebounds. He's day-to-day with an ankle injury.

Terry Rozier has returned to Charlotte's lineup, so at least he's back. Recent pickup Dennis Smith Jr. has been doing well. The Hornets are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games.

Miami has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 home games.

The teams meet again in Miami on Saturday. So this could be a feeling out process between two struggling teams. The Heat don't deserve to be this high of a favorite.