The Illini have star running back Chase Brown and a better defense than Indiana. They also have the advantage of having played a game, looking impressive in a 38-6 victory against Wyoming last Saturday. Indiana was 2-10 last season. That included an 0-9 Big Ten season in which the Hoosiers lost by an average of 24.6 points. 

So I believe the wrong team is favored here. 

Illinois held Wyoming to six points on 212 total yards. Cowboys QB Andrew Peasley was 5-of-20 for 30 passing yards. Indiana has new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers didn't play last week and didn't even hold a spring game. They haven't even announced who their starting QB will be trying to replace Michael Penix Jr., who transferred to Washington. 

The Hoosiers are emphasizing a spread offense since they can't run the ball very well unlike Illinois, who rushed for 260 yards against Wyoming with Brown gaining 151 yards on the ground on 19 carries. Wyoming is bad, but so is Indiana. The Illini's strength is a defense that ranked in the top-30 in giving up the fewest points per game at 21.9. Illinois only permitted four passing TD's in Big Ten games and return three/fourths of its secondary.