No Aaron Rodgers here. Understood. The tradeoff is this low total. If Patrick Mahomes plays then it's way too low of a total. Mahomes has played three series in Kansas City's two preseason games. He led the Chiefs to a touchdown in all three drives.

Andy Reid hasn't ruled Mahomes out. Mahomes played in the Chiefs' final preseason game last year. He was 8-for-9 for 117 yards and two TD's. The Chiefs beat the Vikings, 28-25, in that game. Kansas City won't play again for 16 days following this game. So I'd be surprised if Reid didn't give Mahomes at least a couple of series. Green Bay's defense has improved. However, it's not at the level where it can stop Mahomes.

Even if Mahomes doesn't play, the Chiefs need to establish who their backup QB is, Shane Buechele or Dustin Crum. They also have to get their ground attack going. So I don't see the Chiefs being vanilla here. They have great schemes and methods of attack no matter who is playing. The Packers also have proven vulnerable on special teams. One special teams slip-up can push a total this low to go Over.

The Packers should do their part in the scoring department. Jordan Love has much to prove whether Matt LaFleur wants to admit it or not. The Chiefs ranked 29th in sacks last year. Love should get another extended look. Green Bay doesn't have a superstar wide receiver anymore. But the Packers have good receiving depth and loads of competition. That should ensure a lot of passing.

Third-string Packers QB Danny Etling has played better than expected. He has mobility with the ability to make a big gain out of a busted play. That's a huge trait especially in preseason where there are more busted plays.