Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. 

All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. 

I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. 

But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. 

I've always liked Eric Musselman. He's doing a fantastic job with Arkansas. He's certainly no slouch as a coach - and his teams cover spreads. Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. 

Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average.

Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense.