Stephen Nover Free MLB Sunday Play
(MLB) Chi White Sox vs. Baltimore,
Money Line: -162.00 Chi White Sox (Away)
Result: Win
You can get in trouble laying a big number in baseball where so much is depended on the starting pitcher. Some handicappers even have a policy of never laying more than $1.50. I understand that thinking.

I believe the long-term path to beating the daily grind of baseball is finding the right value plays. It doesn't happen too often, but there can be value on a big favorite. I find that the case in today's White Sox-Orioles matchup.

By my numbers, I would have the White Sox in the minus $2.00 range. So value-wise, I'm OK backing Chicago in this price range.

Perhaps no team is more glad about the up-coming All-Star break than the Orioles. Baltimore hung in for the first five weeks of the season. However, the Orioles are 6-22 in their last 28 games. The Orioles are on pace to lose 110 games now. In other words, a typical-type Orioles season.

Their pitching staff is worn out. The starters are bad and the bullpen is no help. Baltimore might have uncovered a star in John Means. But since he went on the injured list June 6, Baltimore starters have an 8.12 ERA and 1.87 WHIP.

So the Orioles are going to call on rookie Spenser Watkins to make his third major-league start. He's thrown six innings in the big leagues. The White Sox rank fourth in batting average and fifth in runs scored. Chicago has outscored Baltimore, 20-4, in winning the first two games of this series. The White Sox have won four in a row, winning those games by an average of six runs.

Dylan Case starts for the White Sox. He has 111 strikeouts in 87 innings and is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his one previous appearance against Baltimore.

The White Sox are a perfect 6-0 versus the Orioles this season. It's very easy envisioning them moving that record to 7-0.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is coming off his MLB Total of the Year winner with the Under in the Mariners 2-0 victory against the Angels Saturday night. Don't miss any of Stephen's MLB plays. Stephen's Sunday card is headed by his NBA Game of the Month as he looks to go 15-7 on his last 22 NBA plays!)